26.05.25 - 30.05.25
Results of the previous week
| AMC +10.53% | AMZN +1.97% | NZDUSD +0.36% |
PL -3.46% | NG -2.83% | XU -1.90% |
Last week, stock indices saw a slight rise. Reports that the US Federal Court of International Trade had ruled that Donald Trump had overstepped his authority by imposing blanket tariffs, among others, sparked market optimism. That said, the Trump administration has already appealed the decision and has been allowed to continue imposing tariffs in the meantime. This has prevented upward motion.
The forex market didn't see any clear trends. The US dollar strengthened after the court made its ruling on Trump's tariff policy since the possibility that tariffs may be lifted puts monetary policy back in the spotlight. The US Federal Reserve's decisions in this sphere garner the most attention. However, Trump's unpredictable behaviour continues to reduce trust in the dollar. As a result, the dollar began to fall again in the second half of the week.
Brent crude oil prices experienced a moderate decline. Two factors are putting pressure on them. The first is the OPEC+ meeting on 31 May, where a decision on another production increase could be made. The second is negotiations between the United States and Iran that could lead to sanctions on Iranian oil being softened and supply increasing.
Key events of the current week
| The US. Services PMI (ISM) USD/JPY | DATE 04.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US economy remains stable, although the GDP growth rate has slowed slightly. The minutes from the US Federal Reserve's latest meeting didn't show anything new. The regulator continues to note that it needs to closely monitor incoming macroeconomic information before taking any monetary policy decisions. The services PMI report is very important for assessing the economy's health since this sector accounts for about 75% of the United States' GDP. Global analysts expect it to rise, which would be favourable for the dollar since it would mean that one key economic sector is doing well. Against this background, USD/JPY may begin to rise again to 144.80. | |||||
| ECB rates decision EUR/USD | DATE 05.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Europe's economy remains weak. Changing supply chains and rising energy costs are negatively affecting it. Trump's tariffs also pose a certain threat, even though they've been delayed until early July. At the same time, Eurozone inflation remains slightly above the ECB's target level. That's why global analysts expect the regulator to lower its key interest rate again at its next meeting in an attempt to boost economic growth. Monetary policy easing is unfavourable for the euro. Against this background, EUR/USD could form a downward correction toward 1.1200. | |||||
| The US. Non-farm payrolls XAU/USD | DATE 06.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Although the Fed hasn't changed its monetary policy much since its last meeting, it has expressed concerns about a stagflation scenario in which inflation and unemployment rise simultaneously. That's why this US labour market report is so significant. Global analysts expect the rate at which new jobs are created to slow down. In the long term, this will result in higher unemployment and the Fed will be forced to lower its key interest rate. This is unfavourable for the US dollar but good news for gold. In this context, XAU/USD may begin to rise again towards 3400.00. | |||||
